Who's Counting

We like odds of 50 per cent more than probabilities of 25 per cent or 75 per cent. This is why we buy lotto tickets.

What are the odds of dying in a plane crash compared to dying on the roads? Twice as many people die on the roads during a year than the total of those who have died in air accidents. Yet we fear flying more than driving. Air fatalities evoke shock but road deaths are simply another standard news item. We are drawn to the most astonishing event regardless of its probability.

Consider the following odds:
• Being killed by terrorists while travelling: 1 in 650,000.
• Royal flush opening hand: 1 in 649,739.
• Winning anything on a Lotto Lucky Dip: 1 in 20.
• Winning Lotto Division One on a Lucky Dip: 1 in 373,838.
• Winning on one Lotto ticket bought weekly for 50 years: 1 in150.
• That you’ll keep buying and not win the jackpot after 50 years: 149 in 150 (99.33 per cent).
• Winning Powerball Division One on a Power Dip: 1 in 3,070,704.
• Winning on one Power Dip ticket purchased weekly for 50 years: 1 in 1,250 (99.92 per cent don’t win in all that time).
• Being hit by lightning during your life: 1 in 7500.
• Getting cancer sometime in your life: 1 in 9.
• Suffering an unprovoked shark attack: 1 in 6,000,000.
• Drowning in your bathtub: 1 in 685,000.
• Dying in a car crash in New Zealand: 1 in 9000.
• Dying from slipping, stumbling or tripping: 1 in 6548.
• Dying from fireworks discharge: 1 in 615,488.

Obviously the chances of winning lotto are not high, but people still persist in buying tickets.