Over the
years, the phrase "emerging market" has become all but meaningless.
No group that includes China, Argentina, Kenya, the Philippines, and Romania
can possibly qualify as a single coherent class.
To pick
the likeliest winners in this vast category, Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs has
given us the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and now South Africa), the
"Next 11" (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria,
Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam) and, more
recently, MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey). Robert Ward of the
Economist Intelligence Unit has added the CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam,
Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa.)
But all
these constructions include a dizzyingly diverse set of economies that don't
have much in common.
We live in a crisis-prone age.
The countries that are best positioned to
prosper are those that are resilient as well as strong. That's why
pivot states, those able to build profitable relationships with multiple
partners without becoming overly reliant on any of them, are the likeliest
winners in the G-Zero era.
Brazil
will continue to enjoy excellent trade ties with the United States. But China
is now its largest trade partner, helping Brazil's economy ride out the U.S.
slowdown with minimal damage. NATO membership gives Turkey lasting influence in
Brussels and Washington, and many in the Arab world look to Turkey as a
dynamic, modern Muslim state. Add its position at the crossroads of Europe,
Central Asia, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union, and Turkey has a
range of political and commercial options. As in Brazil, this advantage helps
absorb the sorts of shocks that are now all too commonplace.
Asia is
home to several pivot states. Indonesia, with nearly 240 million people, enjoys
a well-diversified economy with trade ties balanced among China, the United
States, Japan, and Singapore. Vietnam receives most of its aid from Japan, its
arms from Russia, and its tourists from China; its biggest export market is the
United States.
Not all
pivot states are developing countries. Far-sighted policy ensures that Canada
is now less vulnerable to a slowdown in the United States. The percentage of
Canada's exports to countries other than the U.S. jumped from 18% in 2005 to
more than 25% just four years later.
The
likeliest losers in this more volatile world are shadow states, the opposite of
pivots, those whose political and commercial possibilities are determined
almost entirely by a single powerful partner. Mexico's largest sources of
foreign currency are oil sales, tourism, and remittances from nationals working
abroad. In all three cases, the vast majority of that currency comes from the
United States.
Mexico's
domestic- and foreign-policy choices are determined by its political process,
not the demands of a domineering sponsor. But when compared with Canada,
Mexico's commercial opportunities and the speed of its development are largely
defined by conditions inside one foreign country.
Ukraine, another shadow state, wants to escape Russia's gravitational pull and
become a pivot state, preserving relations with Moscow while building new ties
with Europe. In fact, Kyiv wants to ink a free-trade deal with the European
Union. But Russia has threatened to sharply increase the price of natural gas
shipments to Ukraine and throw up new trade barriers if Kyiv moves forward with
Europe. The EU, for its part, will end trade talks with Ukraine if it joins a
customs union with Russia. Ukraine can't win because it can't pivot. It lacks
the strength and independence to improve its bargaining position with either
side.
Source: Harvard Business Review