Who's Counting

I am pretty sure it was Winston Churchill who, when confronted with statistical proof growled; “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.” His assertion is still pretty valid many decades later. Statistics are supposed to define what is true, false or merely anecdotal but; statistics can fool us. In fact as Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan points out, it is probably fooling governments right now.

When he talks about the limits of statistics he becomes outraged, “My outrage” he says, “is aimed at the scientist-charlatan putting society at risk using statistical methods. This is similar to the study of the doctor putting the patient at risk.” His view is that those who are putting society at risk are “no true statisticians” merely people using statistics either without understanding them, or in a self serving manner.

I fully endorse these views and exhort you, next time you are presented with ‘definitive statistics’ look very carefully and cynically at who is using them, and for what purpose. And if the mathematical or statistical analysis eludes you take comfort in the words of Einstein “Do not worry about your difficulties in mathematics. I can assure you mine are still greater.”